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ISSUES: Citizenship
Chapter 3: Politics in the UK
Brexit: what happens next?
Following the victory for Leave in the EU referendum, Professor Stephen Tierney sets
out the next steps in the constitutional process.
I
nitially nothing: the referendum
by itself does not change anything
in legal terms. The UK remains
a member of the European Union
until it concludes negotiations on
withdrawal, a process that will take at
least two years.
Two-year negotiation: under the
Treaty of European Union, states have
a specific right to withdraw from the
EU. The United Kingdom must go
through a process set out by Article
50 of the Treaty. The UK Government
will give notice (we don’t know when)
to the other European heads of
government – the European Council –
that the UK intends to leave. The UK
will then negotiate the terms of its
departure over a two-year period; an
extension of this period is possible.
If agreement is reached by the UK and
20 of the other 28 Council members
(this is the majority required), then
that will be formalised. If negotiations
do not conclude in agreement, the UK
can still leave at the end of this period,
although the terms of this departure
may not be favourable to the UK.
There are various options that could
be concluded. One of course is
complete exclusion of the UK from
any of the EU’s treaty arrangements.
That would seem to be very unlikely.
Once the dust settles it is clear that
Europe would benefit from a suitable
trade deal with the UK and vice versa.
But this is all for discussion and will
depend upon the political mood,
particularly among other EU states.
Delaying
negotiations:
the
negotiations need not happen
straight away. It would make sense
for the UK Government to plan
this carefully and for a full internal
discussion to take place across the
parties and the territories of the UK
to try to build consensus as to what
the UK’s negotiating position should
be. The EU and other Member States
kept a fairly low profile during the
campaign, so it is hard to predict
what European reactions will be; it is
also important to distinguish public
statements from private, diplomatic
positions.
Can it all be stopped? The referendum
result is not legally binding and the
PM could simply refuse to notify
the EU of an intention to leave. In
political terms this is unthinkable
(the PM has in any case announced
his impending resignation), as is any
attempt by Parliament to try to block
the negotiations.
Will a deal be done? There are many
reasons to believe that in the end both
sides will come to an arrangement
that sees the UK still connected to the
EU in a range of ways. These are:
Ö
the importance of trade (the UK
is a key importer of European
goods);
Ö
the significance to the EU of the
UK’s international status, strategic
position, territorial waters and
natural resources;
Ö
the number of citizens of the EU
living in the UK and vice versa;
Ö
the EU’s direction of travel: trade
deals with external partners are
proliferating, for example with
the countries of North America.
But there are potentially huge
stumbling blocks: the EU does not
want to introduce a pick-and-mix
arrangement that could encourage
other Member States to unsettle an
increasingly fragile union.
There are other complications. For
example, the UK’s membership of the
WTO is currently dependent upon EU
membership, so that will also have to
be untangled.
Staying in the European Union? The
result was a relatively close one: 52%–
48%. Could the negotiation deal lead
to the UK staying in the EU on very
different terms?
There are legal impediments to the
Article 50 process being used to
renegotiate terms, but the EU does
not let legal niceties get in the way
of realpolitik when the stakes are
high. Some believe that the EU did
not want to reveal its hand before the
referendum, but may now offer better
terms of membership to the UK. Brexit
is a headache it could do without. UK
‘leavers’ would have to be brought
onside, but many of these are ‘soft-
leavers’. The referendum did not offer
a mid-way option – a reformed EU, or
a better position for the UK within it
– beyond the deal negotiated by the
Prime Minister. There was no promise
of a ‘Smith Commission’ to appease
those who want reform. Will the EU
try to bring about such a reform? The
UK is so embedded within the EU that
untangling membership would be a
massive task that may in time appear
unnecessary.
There is of course a strong argument
that this simply won’t happen. Such
an accommodation of the UK would
surely need treaty reform and would
therefore require the unanimous
consent of all Member States to any
new deal. As I say, it would also open
the door for other states to push
for reform and better terms. This
latter point could well mean that,
for Brussels and the dominant forces
within the EU, the political cost could
just be too high; the danger being
that the monetary union itself could
collapse. But this issue will be on
“The EU does not want
to introduce a pick-
and-mix arrangement
that could encourage
other Member States to
unsettle an increasingly
fragile union”
“There are many known
unknowns, most of
which are political
questions which will
hinge on how things
play out”
