39
ISSUES: Citizenship
Chapter 3: Politics in the UK
the table when the dust settles, and
over time the gap between a free
trade deal for the UK and ongoing
membership may start to shrink
towards vanishing point.
Parliament’s role: Westminster would
still have a significant role to play in
offering views in negotiations and in
ratifying the exit Treaty (or refusing
to do so).
Because of the power Parliament
has ultimately to accept or reject a
deal, it would also expect to be kept
closely informed. This will be a period
for parliamentarians to show their
mettle, calling the UK negotiators to
account, and making sure the people
of the UK are as fully-informed as
possible. Transparency has not been
a characteristic of EU treaty-making
and it will be for the Commons and the
Lords to insist upon this. It will also be
vital for the Scottish Parliament and
other devolved legislatures to feed
into this process and to scrutinise it
energetically.
The possibility of another General
Election (and devolved elections)
before an exit treaty is agreed
should not be discounted. Europe
would obviously be a major issue
in these elections and the results
of any elections could impact upon
negotiating positions.
In the meantime: the UK remains a
Member State of the EU and fully
subject to its obligations under EU
law. This means that is very difficult
(in reality impossible) to change
any of the current arrangements
regarding free movement, etc. until
the UK has concluded its exit treaty.
There can be no immediate ban on
free movement of EU citizens for
example.
Massive
job
for
law-makers:
Parliament must also reform UK
law. A significant claim of the Leave
campaign was the extent to which EU
law has been incorporated into UK
law. This will all have to be revised – a
major headache for legislators and for
government civil servants.
There is another point. So big is
this task that it will have to take
priority over much else, clogging
up the parliamentary timetable and
presumably putting on hold much of
the programme in the last Queen’s
Speech. Will there be parliamentary
space to take forward the new Wales
Bill, reforming Welsh devolution, for
example? EU exit will also no doubt
preoccupy the devolved legislatures
and
governments,
impacting
significantly on the process of
government in Scotland, Wales and
Northern Ireland over the next few
years.
Implications for the Union? Already
Scottish
nationalists
and
Irish
nationalists in Northern Ireland have
madethepointthatthisisnotapopular
decision in their territories, and that
they will oppose exit. Calls for a
second referendum on independence
in Scotland may intensify, as could
calls for a referendum under the
Northern Ireland Act 1998 for
reunification of Ireland. It is not clear
that opposition to Brexit will translate
automatically into majority support
for Scottish independence (and far
less likely for Irish reunification):
does Scotland want to be the site
of the EU’s territorial border with
England? But the devolved territories
will offer strong views throughout
the negotiation process, and the
prospect of Scottish independence
may well push the UK towards trying
to retain an integrated relationship
with the EU.
The Scotland Act 2016 strengthens
Scotland’s position in a ‘federal’
direction;
strengthening
the
constitutional status of the Scottish
Parliament as a firm partner in the
Union. An exit treaty could possibly be
pushed through Westminster without
the Scottish Parliament’s consent. But
this would go against the spirit of the
2016 Act and of devolution as a whole.
It could also lead to court challenges,
which even if unsuccessful would
sour relations between London and
Edinburgh in a highly toxic way. The
need to carry the devolved territories
along in any negotiation process is
crucial to the health of the UK. It would
be ironic if the UK were to secure its
‘independence’ from Europe, only
then to fall apart as a state.
Northern Ireland is possibly an even
more serious issue than Scotland.
The peace process has largely been
a success, and a main plank in the
thawing of relations across the island
of Ireland has been the Common
Travel Area between the UK and the
Republic of Ireland. It is vital that the
slow growth in closer relations across
Ireland should not be jeopardised.
This is arguably the most important
issue for exit negotiations, particularly
if there is any question that the peace
process is at stake.
Points of uncertainty: these could fill
a book…
There are many known unknowns,
most of which are political questions
which will hinge on how things play
out.
Ö
What will this mean for the
Conservative Party and the
Government?
The
PM
has
announced he will resign within
the next few months. Where do
we go from here?
Ö
What will it mean for Europe? Will
other states now seek to reform
the EU from within? Will other exit
movements across the Continent
grow in strength?
Ö
Will the EU try to see off exit by
offering the UK a new deal? If
so, would the UK Government
be politically able to negotiate a
settlement short of exit?
Ö
What will it mean for the UK
economy and indeed for the
economies of our European
partners, for the pound and the
euro?
It is not a time for predictions. We
must wait and see…
24 June 2016
Ö
The
above
information
is
reprinted with kind permission
from the Centre on Constitutional
Change.
Please
visit
www.
centreonconstitutionalchange.
ac.uk for further information.
© Centre on Constitutional
Change 2017
“The referendum result
is not legally binding
and the PM could simply
refuse to notify the EU of
an intention to leave”
