ISSUES
: Our Changing Population
Chapter 1: Population in the UK
8
UK life expectancy expected to rise to
late 80s by 2030
“
Life expectancy is rising faster
than thought, with 90 expected
to become the norm in some
affluent areas of the country by
2030,”
The Guardian
reports. The
same predictions led the
Daily
Mail
to warn of a “life expectancy
timebomb”.
A new modelling study looking at
trends in life expectancy estimated
that male babies born in 2030 could
live to an average of 85.7 years,
with females living an average of
87.6 years.
The study also flagged up the
potential effects of health and
socioeconomic inequalities on
life expectancy. For example,
it estimated life expectancy in
the affluent London borough of
Kensington and Chelsea would
be five to six years higher than
the working-class area of Tower
Hamlets.
It remains to be seen if the increase
in life expectancy would be a
blessing or a burden. Elderly people
contribute to society in many
meaningful ways, such as helping
out with childcare or volunteering
for charity work. But they may also
have complex health needs that
could require significant resources
to treat.
Assuming the model is accurate,
the
study
produces
some
interesting results about trends in
life expectancy and inequalities,
and how they may change over
time.
Where did the story
come from?
The study was carried out by
researchers from the department
of epidemiology and biostatistics
at the School of Public Health and
MRC-PHE Centre for Environment
and Health, the UK Small Area
Health Statistics Unit, Imperial
College London, Northumbria
University, and GlaxoSmithKline.
It was funded by the UK Medical
Research Council and Public Health
England.
The study was published in the
peer-reviewed medical journal,
The
Lancet
. It has been made available
on an open-access basis, so it is
free to read online.
Most of the media reported the
results of the research well,
although they did not question
the accuracy of the predictions
much. Different outlets focused on
different aspects of the research.
The Daily Telegraph
and the
Mail
focused on the headline figure
that the study predicted higher
life expectancies than official
estimates. In its headline, the
Telegraph
claimed people would
live “up to four years longer” than
official estimates, although the
study shows a difference of 2.4
years for men and one year for
women.
BBCNews highlighted the narrowing
gap between men and women’s life
expectancies, while
The Guardian
and
The Independent
were more
concerned with the widening gap
between rich and poor.
What kind of research
was this?
This modelling study analysed
death rates and population data
for 375 districts of England and
Wales. Researchers used the data
to construct mathematical models
to predict life expectancy from 1981
to 2030 for each of the districts,
looking at men and women
separately.
The study aimed to give reliable
district-level information about
life expectancy to help with future
planning for health, social service
and pension needs. The figures are
all averages for the districts and
cannot be used to predict individual
lifespans.
What did the research
involve?
Researchers looked at records
of deaths in England and Wales
between 1981 and 2012 by local
authority district. They combined
this with population data to develop
five statistical models that could
predict future death rates and life
expectancy.
The researchers tested the models
to see which best predicted actual
death rates during the last ten years
of the data, then used the best-
performing model to predict future
life expectancy at the local and
national level.
The data in the study came from
the Office for National Statistics.
The models incorporated features
of death rates in relation to people’s
age, trends of death rates in people
who were born within or close to the
same five-year period, changes to
death rates over time, and by local
area.
The test of the five models found
one model, which gave greater
importance to trends in those
born within adjacent time periods,
worked better than the others, with
forecast errors of 0.01 years for
men and women.
This model was best able to predict
death rates for 2002–12 using
the first 21 years of the data. The
researchers therefore chose this
model to predict life expectancy
from 2012–30.
While the geographical areas of the
districts remained the same over the
study, people living in these areas
obviously change. The researchers
looked at trends for each district,
including birth rates and migration,
so they could factor this in.
They looked at how relative levels
of deprivation for each district
affected the mortality rates and
life expectancy. Taking account of
all this data, they then predicted
how life expectancy at birth could
