ISSUES
: Our Changing Population
Chapter 1: Population in the UK
9
change from babies born in 2012 to
babies born in 2030.
Rates for men and women were
calculated separately, as life
expectancy differs by gender. As
far as we can tell from the paper, the
analysis was done using reasonable
assumptions about population
trends.
What were the basic
results?
The study found life expectancy
in England and Wales is expected
to continue to rise from the 2012
average of 79.5 years for men
and 83.3 for women, to 85.7 (95%
credible interval 84.2 to 87.4) for
men and 87.6 (95% credible interval
86.7 to 88.9) for women by 2030.
This is higher than predictions from
the Office of National Statistics.
However, this will come at the cost
of increasing inequality between
districts.
Improvements in life expectancy
from 1981–2012 varied a great
deal between districts. In 1981,
men in districts with the best life
expectancies could expect to
live 5.2 years longer than those
in the areas with the lowest life
expectancies (4.5 for women).
By 2012, this had increased to a
difference of 6.1 years for men and
5.6 years for women. The study says
this trend is expected to accelerate,
so that by 2030 the difference in
life expectancy between the best
and worst districts could reach 8.3
years for both men and women.
Most of the districts with the
lowest life expectancies now and
in 2030 were in south Wales and
the northeast and northwest of
England. The areas with the highest
life expectancy were mostly in the
south of England and London.
However, London districts varied
from the highest to the lowest life
expectancy levels.
The gap between men and women’s
life expectancy is expected to
shrink further. It has already shrunk
from six years in 1981 to 3.8 years
in 2012, and by 2030 it could be
only 1.9 years. In some areas, there
may be no difference between men
and women’s life expectancy at all.
How did the
researchers interpret
the results?
The researchers say their results
are a more accurate prediction of
how life expectancy will increase
than official figures, and are the first
to look consistently at changes in
life expectancy at the district level
over a long period of time.
They say the increase is likely to
be the result of better survival in
people over the age of 65. They say
men’s life expectancy will rise faster
than women’s, partly because of
the effect of social trends such as
smoking among middle-aged and
older women.
The researchers claim the data
will allow local authorities to plan
better for the future, especially as
much health and social care is now
the responsibility of local areas.
However, they also say the figures
provide a warning that inequality in
England and Wales will continue to
rise.
Conclusion
This analysis of population
data provides some fascinating
information
about
how
life
expectancy has changed over
the past 30 years, and how it may
change in the future.
It found life expectancy for men
and women will continue to rise.
However, it also found the existing
trends of the difference in life
expectancy between different
districts will continue to rise, which
is of concern.
Although the data shows more
deprived areas have seen less of an
improvement in life expectancy, the
study cannot inform us what factors
are responsible for the differences
in life expectancy.
There is one big limitation of any
study that predicts life expectancy
in the future: the figures are always
based on trends from death rates
in the past, and assume that past
trends will continue into the future.
These types of studies cannot
account for unexpected events
or major social changes that
could have a huge effect on life
expectancy. For example, they can’t
build into their models the potential
for unlikely events such as a big
natural disaster, changes within the
healthcare system, or even a major
health breakthrough, such as a cure
for heart disease or cancer.
It’s worth remembering, too, that
life expectancy figures represent
the life expectancy of a baby born
in that particular year. So the life
expectancy figures for 2012 don’t
represent life expectancy for adults
alive in 2012, but for babies born
that year. This means the figures for
2030 don’t yet apply: they are only
predictions for babies born in the
future.
The study can’t be used by
individuals to predict how long they
may live, but it does provide useful
data to plan for pensions and health
and social provisions in the future.
If you are keen to live to 2030 and
beyond, your best bet is to take
steps to reduce your risk of the five
leading causes of premature death:
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cancer
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heart disease
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stroke
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respiratory disease
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liver disease.
30 April 2015
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The above information is
reprinted with kind permission
from NHS Choices. Please
visit
for further
information.
© NHS Choices 2015
