ISSUES
: Our Changing Population
Chapter 1: Population in the UK
10
The UK, the world and the people
Information from the ESRC about World Population Day 2014.
T
he world’s population has
reached 7.2 billion and
counting – literally, if you
take a look at this world population
clock. By 2025, world population
could be more than eight billion
people. Around 2047 it could hit
nine billion and by 2100 it could
reach 11 billion – although there
is still much uncertainty around
this number with some estimates
reaching 16 billion.
“The World Population Day theme
for 2014 was ‘Investing in young
people’ – a topic of universal
importance, but especially relevant
for developing countries,” says Dr
Jakub Bijak of the ESRC Centre
for Population Change. He is an
expert on social statistics and
demography at the University of
Southampton.
The under-15s comprise more than
a quarter of the global population,
Dr Bijak points out.
“The world today has its largest
generation of youth in history –
1.8 billion young people, mostly
in developing countries – with
enormous potential to help tackle
the major challenges facing
humanity,” says UN Secretary-
General Ban Ki-moon in a statement
for World Population Day.
But looking specifically at the UK
population, what does the future
hold? The overall population is set
to reach 73 million people by 2037,
according to the Office for National
Statistics. Some 57 per cent of
the projected increase is set to
be driven by ‘projected natural
increase’, which essentially means
more births than deaths – while the
remaining 43 per cent is down to
net migration (those arriving minus
those leaving).
One thing which can be said with
some certainty is that the UK will
be more ethnically diverse, says Dr
Bijak. He cites ethnic population
projections from the ESRC-funded
UPTAP programme (Understanding
Population Trends and Processes),
which finished in 2010.
But while the future UK population
likely will continue to grow – mainly
due to more births than deaths –
future migration levels are actually
more uncertain.
“Even though in the last two
years net migration was relatively
stable, we do not know whether
this will continue,” says Dr Bijak.
“Besides, estimates of migration
to and from the UK are based on a
sample survey, which bears large
random errors, so an apparent
increase or decrease in migration
estimates may not be significant in
a statistical sense.
“This is why demographers try to
move from trying to predict the
future population exactly, which
is not possible, to describing the
uncertainty – the likelihood of
different possible outcomes –which
can be then taken into account in
planning and policymaking.”
“As for Europe – and indeed the
rest of the world – the main issue
is that different countries are really
diverse when it comes to future
population change,” he adds.
In several European countries,
the birth rate is declining. Many
Western European countries,
including Spain, Italy and Germany
have total fertility rates below 2.1
births per woman – the rate they
would need to achieve to keep
population at the same level.
Birth rates aside, the UK is among
EU countries with the largest
inflows of foreign nationals, but it’s
not unique, according to figures in
the House of Commons library. In
2011, the UK came second among
the EU countries with an inflow
of 418,000 foreign nationals, and
ranked third in net migration with
239,000.
But the big picture in terms
of population growth remains
the developing world, Dr Bijak
emphasises. The highest growth
occurs in poor countries – and the
countries with the fastest growth
rates already have difficulties
feeding their populations.
11 July 2014
Ö
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The above information is
reprinted with kind permission
from the ESRC. Please visit
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