ISSUES
: Our Changing Population
Chapter 2: Global population issues
17
contained in
World Contraceptive
Use 2012
. Estimates of the number
of international migrants are based
on
Trends in International Migrant
Stock: The 2013 Revision
, which
presents estimates of the number
of migrants by origin, age and sex
for each country and major area of
the world.
Population size and growth
In 1994, when the international
community met in Cairo at the
International
Conference
on
Population and Development, an
estimated 5.7 billion people were
living on the planet. At that time,
nearly 84 million people were being
added to the world’s population
annually. According to United
Nations projections available at
the time, the world’s population
was expected to grow by 87 million
annually for the following 25 years.
Whereas it had taken 123 years
for the world’s population to grow
from one billion to two billion, it was
projected at the time of the Cairo
Conference that only 11 years
would be required for the increase
from five billion to six billion.
In 2014, the 20th anniversary
of the Conference, the world’s
population has already surpassed
7 billion – a number reached in
2011 – even though it took a little
longer than predicted in 1994, as
population growth over the past
20 years has been slightly slower
than expected. Between 2010 and
2014, the world’s population grew
at a rate of 1.2 per cent per annum,
significantly below the 1.5 per cent
per annum around the time of the
Cairo Conference. At the beginning
of 2014, the world’s population
was estimated at 7.2 billion, with
approximately 82 million being
added every year and roughly a
quarter of this growth occurring in
the least developed countries. On
its current trajectory, the world’s
population is expected to reach
8.1 billion in 2025 and 9.6 billion in
2050.
While the absolute size of the
world’s population has grown
substantially since the Cairo
Conference, the annual increase in
that population has been declining
since the late 1960s. By 2050,
it is expected that the world’s
population will be growing by 49
million people per year, more than
half of whom will live in the least
developed countries. Currently,
of the 82 million people added to
the world’s population every year,
54 per cent are in Asia and 33 per
cent in Africa. By 2050, however,
more than 80 per cent of the global
increase will take place in Africa,
with only 12 per cent in Asia.
Although most major areas
experienced similar levels of
population growth between 1994
and 2014, Africa and Europe
stood out, with growth rates
significantly higher in Africa and
lower in Europe compared with
other regions. Between 2014 and
2050, all major areas are expected
to experience further reductions
in their population growth rates,
resulting in increasingly dramatic
contrasts in population dynamics
among them. For example, by
2050, Africa will be growing more
than six times as fast as Latin
America and the Caribbean and
more than 15 times as fast as Asia.
Partly because of international
migration, the growth rates of both
North America and Oceania will
exceed those of Asia and Latin
America and the Caribbean over
the coming decades. Europe is
projected to experience population
decline after 2020. Overall, the
global population growth rate is
projected to fall to 0.5 per cent per
annum by 2050.
Small variations in the trajectory
of future fertility will have major
consequences for the future
size and structure of the world’s
population. In the high-fertility
variant of the projections, an extra
half child per woman, on average,
implies that there would be 1.3
billion more people in the world
in 2050 than under the medium-
fertility variant. On the other hand,
if women have, on average, a half
child less, as implied by the low-
fertility variant, there would be 1.2
billion fewer people in the world in
2050.
Most of the population growth
projected to occur between 2014
and 2050 will be concentrated
in a small number of countries.
During the period 2014–2050, nine
countries are expected to account
for more than half of the world’s
projected increase: the Democratic
Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia,
India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan,
the United Republic of Tanzania,
the United States of America and
Uganda. Several of these countries
are among the most populous
today. Given its anticipated
growth, India is projected to
overtake China and become the
world’s most populous country by
2028. High population growth rates
prevail in many of the countries
that are on the United Nations list
of 49 least developed countries.
Between 2014 and 2050, the total
population of these countries is
projected to double, according to
the medium-fertility variant, putting
additional pressure on resources
and the environment and straining
government capacities to provide
high-quality services.
At the other end of the spectrum,
the populations of more than 40
countries and major areas are
expected to decrease between
2014 and 2050. The largest absolute
declines are expected for China,
Germany, Japan, Poland, Romania,
the Russian Federation, Serbia,
Thailand and Ukraine. Many other
countries, particularly in Eastern
Europe, but also in East, South-
East and Western Asia, other parts
of Europe and Latin America and
the Caribbean, are also expected
to experience population decline
before 2050. Population decline
and the acceleration of population
ageing are therefore important
concerns in a growing number of
countries and major areas.
2014
Ö
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From
The World Population
Situation in 2014: A Concise
Report
, by the Department of
Economic and Social Affairs
Population Division, © 2014
United Nations. Reprinted with
the permission of the United
Nations.
