ISSUES
: Our Changing Population
Chapter 2: Global population issues
18
Population ageing and sustainable
development
Global ageing to accelerate
in the coming decades
The percentage of the global
population aged 60 years or over
increased from 8.5 per cent in 1980 to
12.3 per cent in 2015 and is projected
to rise further to 21.5 per cent in 2050.
1
Out of 233 countries or areas, 191
(82 per cent) experienced increases
in the proportion of older persons
between 1980 and 2015. 231
countries or areas (99 per cent) are
expected to see an increase in the
proportion aged 60 or over between
2015 and 2050.
Population ageing is a phenomenon
that results from declines in
fertility as well as increases in
longevity, two trends that are
usually associated with social and
economic development.
Europe was the first region to enter the
demographic transition, having begun
the shift to lower fertility and increasing
longevity in the late 19th and early
20th centuries. As a result, today’s
European population is the most aged
in the world, with 24 per cent of the
population aged 60 or over. Europe
is projected to remain the most aged
region in the coming decades, with 34
per cent of the population projected to
be aged 60 or over in 2050, followed by
Northern America (27 per cent), Latin
America and the Caribbean (25 per
cent), Asia (24 per cent) and Oceania
(23 per cent).
Compared toother regions,manyparts
of Africa entered the demographic
transition relatively recently, and thus
the ageing process has only just
begun: older persons accounted for
just over five per cent of the population
of Africa in 2015, but that proportion is
projected to nearly double by 2050.
Most of the projected
growth of the older
population will take place in
the global South
1 Data are from World Population Prospects: The
2012 Revision, CD-ROM Edition-Extended Dataset
(United Nations Publications, Sales No. 13.XIII.10)
Asia was home to more than half
of the world’s 901 million older
persons in 2015, with 508 million
people aged 60 or over. Another
177 million older persons resided in
Europe (20 per cent), 75 million in
Northern America (eight per cent),
71 million in Latin America and
the Caribbean (eight per cent), 64
million in Africa (seven per cent),
and six million in Oceania (one per
cent).
By 2050 the number of older
persons worldwide is projected to
more than double to two billion.
While that increase reflects growing
numbers of older persons in all
regions, Africa, Latin America
and the Caribbean, and Asia are
projected to see especially rapid
growth of their older populations.
The population of older persons
in Africa is projected to more than
triple by 2050, reaching 220 million.
The number of older persons in
Latin America and the Caribbean
will nearly triple to 200 million in
2050 and the population aged 60 or
over in Asia will more than double,
reaching 1.3 billion by the mid-
century. Between 2015 and 2050,
the older populations of Europe
and Northern America will grow
by 38 per cent and 27 per cent,
respectively, reaching 242 million
and 123 million persons aged 60 or
over.
The older population is itself
ageing. Among those aged 60 or
over worldwide, 14 per cent were
aged 80 or over in 2015. By 2050,
the projected 434 million people
aged 80 or over will account for 21
per cent of the global population
over age 60.
The older population is and will
remain predominantly female.
Globally, women outlived men
by 4.4 years on average between
2010 and 2015 (life expectancy at
birth was 72.7 years for females
compared to 68.3 years for males).
As a result, women made up 54
per cent of those aged 60 or over
and 61 per cent of those aged 80
or over.
As people age, they rely on
various sources of financial
support: labour income,
assets, their families and
public programmes
In developing countries, with limited
public transfer systems, assets
and labour income are the major
sources of financial support for old
age.
2
During their early old age (60–
69 years), net asset reallocations
together with labour income
finance almost all of older persons’
consumption. At more advanced
ages (70 and over), these two
sources continue to finance about
70 per cent of the consumption
of older persons in developing
2 Data are obtained from National Transfer Accounts
at
The developed countries
in this sample include Austria, Germany, Hungary,
Japan, Slovenia, Sweden and the United States of
America. The sample of developing countries includes
Brazil, China, Costa Rica, India, Indonesia, Mexico, the
Republic of Korea, the Philippines and Thailand.
