
Catastrophe can come out of the blue. Shortly before Britain was dragged into the devastating French revolutionary wars, the then prime minister William Pitt reassured the House of Commons that ‘there never was a time in the history of this country when ... we might more reasonably expect fifteen years of peace.’ In 1938, Neville Chamberlain won global plaudits for securing ‘peace for our time’. In 1914, just before the German army marched in, the French public was wholly absorbed by the tria...
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