General Article US birth rates are at record lows

Topic Selected: Population Book Volume: 435

US birth rates are at record lows – even though the number of kids most Americans say they want has held steady

More one-and-done families influence the overall birth rate. Maskot via Getty Images

Sarah Hayford, The Ohio State University and Karen Benjamin Guzzo, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Birth rates are falling in the U.S. After the highs of the Baby Boom in the mid-20th century and the lows of the Baby Bust in the 1970s, birth rates were relatively stable for nearly 50 years. But during the Great Recession, from 2007-2009, birth rates declined sharply – and they’ve kept falling. In 2007, average birth rates were right around 2 children per woman. By 2021, levels had dropped more than 20%, close to the lowest level in a century. Why?

Is this decline because, as some suggest, young people aren’t interested in having children? Or are people facing increasing barriers to becoming parents?

We are demographers who study how people make plans for having kids and whet...

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