Climate change is more likely to lead to local and regional migration as people’s livelihoods are lost through drought, flooding or other types of environmental degradation. Research by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) in Africa and South America found most migrants were likely to move to other rural areas or local towns on a temporary basis.
Seasonal movement is historically common with, for example, pastoralists in East Africa having long-developed strategies to cope with unpredictable environments. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the study found, many women migrate to towns during dry seasons to work as cleaners and street traders. While in the Bolivian Andes, women are already moving for three to six months of the year to take llamas to pasture.
A number of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have predicted as many as one billion people could have been forced to relocate by 2050 because of the effects of climate change. However, the IIED fi