How many humans tomorrow? The United Nations revises its projections
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Gilles Pison, Muséum national d’histoire naturelle (MNHN)
In 2019 the planet has 7.7 billion inhabitants, which is likely to rise to 8.5 billion in 2030 and nearly 10 billion in 2050. These figures are taken from the world population projections just released by the United Nations.
They correspond to the medium scenario in which fertility, which is 2.5 children per woman today worldwide and decreases year by year, continues to decline to 2.2 children in 2050 and 1.9 in 2100. Under the high scenario, fertility declines less rapidly, with a level of 0.5 children above the medium scenario, and the world population would reach 10.6 billion by 2050. In the low scenario, it decreases faster and is 0.5 children below the medium scenario, with the population reaching only 8.9 billion by 2050. Extending the projections leads to 10.9 billion inhabitants in 2100 in the medium scenario and, respectively, 16 and 7 billion in the high and low scenarios (Figure 1).
3% fewer people in 2100 than...
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